NEW TAX POLL: Democrats Must Fight Against the GOP Tax Plan or Risk Ceding Issue to Republicans

Polling Shows That Progressives Must Continue To Focus Their 2018 Strategy On The Tax Plan’s Harmful Impact On The Middle Class

Monday, February 26, 2018


Washington, D.C. — Today, the Not One Penny campaign  hosted a press call with Senator Chris Van Hollen, Pollster Margie Omero, and Tax March Executive Director Nicole Gill to discuss new national polling showcasing the importance of progressives mobilizing against the TrumpTax ahead of critical 2018 midterm elections.

The polling shows that Democrats are well-positioned to influence the debate regarding the GOP tax plan, as long as they continue to sell the public on why the GOP tax bill is bad for working families. Conversely, if Democrats cede ground to Republicans and avoid discussing the tax plan, they hurt their party’s overall position and boost opinion of the law in the vacuum they create.

Voters polled were split into four groups: one group heard an anti-TrumpTax message, one heard a pro-TrumpTax message, and two heard a mixture of both. The results are clear: Democrats can win on the tax issue, and they neglect it at their peril.

  • A standalone anti-TrumpTax message shifts support for the plan substantially, from a 4-point margin against the plan (40 percent  to 44 percent) to a 26-point margin (a 22-point shift) against the plan (31 percent to 58 percent).

  • A standalone pro-TrumpTax message shifts support for the plan, from a 4-point margin against the plan (40 percent to 44 percent) to an 11-point margin (a 15-point shift) in support of the plan (52 percent to 41 percent).

  • A balanced message regarding the TrumpTax shifts support for the plan, from a 4-point margin against the plan (40 percent to 44 percent) to a 7-point margin (an 3-point shift)  against the plan (42 percent to 49 percent).

This survey, conducted by GBA Strategies on behalf of Not One Penny also shows that:

  • With massive spending from the Koch brothers and other corporate supporters, support for the GOP tax plan has risen since passage, yet it remains unpopular, as only 39 percent of Americans on average support the tax plan.

  • Americans overwhelmingly believe that the GOP tax plan benefits wealthy individuals and corporations.

  • Only 21 percent of voters report that the GOP tax bill has had a positive impact for their personal finances.

  • 48 percent of Democrats say that the GOP tax bill will be a major factor in their vote during the upcoming midterm elections, compared to 41 percent of Republicans.

  • Progressives can win the argument on taxes if they engage the debate, but it will be costly if they shy away. Results show that when voters are exposed to both conservative and progressive messaging, opposition to the bill outpaces support.

“It doesn’t matter if you are in a red state or a blue state, cutting Medicare and Medicaid to pay for a tax cuts for rich people is not going to be a good message,” said Senator Chris Van Hollen.

“We are hearing it across the country–voters are angry that Republicans have gone even further to rig the game in favor of their wealthy friends,” said Nicole Gill, Executive Director of the Tax March. “Any way Republicans try to sell this, it’s a plan that was made exclusively for their wealthy corporate friends, and won’t help working families.”

This survey was conducted via online panel matched to a voter file with 2,000 registered voters nationally from February 9 to 17, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 2.2%.

GBA Strategies Memo

Not One Penny Memo

# # #